外媒：尽管干散货需求减少，但海运价格依然上调
概述：据权威研究机构报道，本周干散货市场的需求平稳下降，对现货市场海运租赁拉响的警铃。尽管现货市场海运租赁减少，上周中国港口铁矿石与煤炭库存急速上升，现货市场阶段性看好，干散货海运价格仍然上调。
Dry bulk cargo demand declines but freight rates find support
A new report from Commodore Research on the state of the dry bulk market said that dry bulk cargo demand has declined moderately over the course of the week, raising the alarm over the troubling development of a decline in spot chartering activity. Last week saw 100 spot fixtures report (24 less than the previous week) and 32 period fixtures (11 more than the previous week). In fact, fice or more deals were for a year or more, in turn benefiting freight rates in the spot market. Capesize chartering activity declined last week, with only 13 iron ore fixtures actually reported in the market, 14 less than the previous week. Despite last week’s 17% rise in capesize rates, short-term prospects for the capesize market remain troubling Yesterday, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose for the 12th straight session, now standing at 1,977 points, up by 0.51% versus Friday. Commodore said that “last week’s decline in spot chartering activity is troubling, particularly the decline in thermal coal and iron ore fixtures. Asian thermal coal demand remains strong but the decrease in coal fixtures must not be ignored. Even more troubling is last week’s decline in iron ore fixtures. With stockpiles of iron ore and coal at Chinese ports both up sharply from a week ago, it is possible that related chartering activity will remain at subdued levels during the upcoming weeks.
Dry bulk freight rates were still able to increase last week despite the decline in spot chartering activity, with the spot market benefiting from a continued increase in period chartering activity. The market has acknowledged that spot freight rates for panamax, supramax, and handysize vessels remain firm and are optimistic that rates for these vessels will remain well above operating costs in the foreseeable futures”.
The report went on to say that near-term prospects for the capesize market remain bleak. “In addition to the steady amount of capesize newbuildings continuing to enter the market, capesize vessel congestion has decreased sharply during the last six weeks. Going forward, capesize chartering activity needs to increase drastically for Cape rates to find continued support”.
An additional factor to watch in the market is India’s Kamataka’s recent decision to ban iron ore exports, which will likely help the market as it will likely lead to an increase Chinese ore imports from Brazil (the vast majority of Brazilian ore exports are shipped with Capes). Several rail and truck shipments of Indian iron ore were halted - but shipments, for the most part, eventually returned to normal - even while the government remained aware of continuing tax evasion. The Kamataka government has now banned ore exports from ten ports, as it believes banning iron ore exports is the only way to put significant pressure on the illegal activities. Kamataka produces approximately 46 million tons of iron ore each year, with roughly 40 million tons of the ore exported to China. Iron ore exports will be restricted at the ports of Padubidre, Karwar, Tadadi, Belikere, Bhatkal, Honnawar, Kundapur, Maple, Hangarkatte, and Old Mangalore. Most of the ports are relatively small and currently not very active due to India’s ongoing monsoon season - but the decision to ban exports from the ports will still moderately limit overall Indian iron ore exports.
If Kamataka-produced ore is also restricted from being trucked and railed to ports outside of Kamataka, Brazilian iron ore exports would receive even greater support. It remains to be seen if the ban on ore exports will last for a prolonged period of time however. It is also possible that Chinese iron ore demand will remain at a subdued level during the upcoming weeks due to the near record amount of ore that is stockpiled at Chinese ports. This would partially cancel out the impact of the Kamataka iron ore ban.
（来源：Hellenic Shipping News）
