Iron prices tipped to soar as Chinese mills feel the pinch

概述：华尔街日报澳大利亚讯，中国的钢铁企业将面临稳步上升的成本压力，因为竞争对手安塞乐米塔尔，浦项制铁宣布增加产量以满足发达经济体的需求。麦格理证券分析师ColinHamilton认为：中国的钢企的需求拉动了矿石的价格，但目前其他经济体的复苏使得他们对矿石的需求回升。南韩的浦项制铁宣布本年度将增产10%后，安塞乐米塔尔也宣布将增加产量。

原文：

CHINESEsteelmakers,theworld'slargestbuyersofironore,faceescalatingcostsforthesteelmakingingredientasglobalrivalsArcelorMittalandPoscoincreaseoutputtofeedresurgentdemandindevelopedeconomies.

Contractpricesareexpectedtoclimb31percenttothesecond-highestonrecordfortheyearstartingApril1,judgingbyasurveyof17analystsconductedbyBloomberg.

Thatcompareswiththe14percentgainforecastinOctober.NomuraandBankofAmericaMerrillLynchexpecta50percentjump.

ThedemandrevivalwillbenefitBHPBilliton,RioTintoandVale,thethreelargestsuppliersofironore.Theglobalrecessionforcedminerstoslashpricesby33percentin2009,thefirstreductioninsevenyears.

"ThebigmillsinChinahavebeendrivingtheprice,butnowcapacityoutsideChinaispickingup,"saidColinHamilton,aMacquarieSecuritiesGroupanalystinLondon."ThereispressureonproducerstodeliverintoEuropeandelsewhere,whichisexacerbatingthetightness."

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ArcelorMittal,theworld'sbiggeststeelmaker,israisingproductionasSouthKorea'sPoscopredictsglobalsteeldemandwillrise10percentthisyear.

Supplyconcernhasprompted"panicbuying"ofironorebytheChinese,accordingtoGoldmanSachsJBWere,aspricesoforeforimmediatedeliveryjumptoa13-monthhigh.

IronoredemandfromChina,ledbyBaosteelGroup,couldrise6.2percentthisyear,whilepurchasesintherestoftheworldcouldsurge16percent,MorganStanley'schiefmetalseconomistPeterRichardsonhasforecast.

"Theglobalrecovery,excludingChina,mayadd100milliontonnesofcrudesteeloutputthisyear,"XuXiangchun,chiefanalystwithMysteelResearchInstituteinBeijing,said.

"Ironorepricenegotiationswillprobablybeconcludedquicklybecausethesituationisveryclearthatpricesmustrise."

IronoreforimmediatedeliveryintoChinasurgedtoa13-monthhighof$US131.20atonneonJanuary8,accordingtotheSteelIndex.Japanesesteelmakersagreedtocontractpricesofabout$US61atonne,excludingfreight,in2009.TheChineseincreasedpurchasesonthecashspotoremarketafterrejectingthe33percentcutforcontractdeliveryastoosmall.

AChineseagreementmightbepossiblethisyearasthesteelmakers"areunderpressurebecausethealternativeistonotagreetoahighercontractpriceandtoalignthemselveswithspot,whichiscurrentlymuchhigher",saidDanielFairclough,ananalystatICAPEquitiesinLondon.Chineseironoreimportswillclimbto667milliontonnesthisyear,fromarecord628milliontonnesin2009,accordingtoMorganStanley.ConsumptionoutsideofChinawouldleapto329milliontonnesfrom283milliontonnes,thebrokeragesaid.

BHP,RioandValegetabout$US44.3billion($49bn)incombinedannualsalesfromironore,accordingtodataforthelatestavailableperiod.

London-basedRio,thesecond-largestsupplier,saiddemandwasrecoveringafterreportinga49percentjumpinfourth-quarteroutput.

RecoveryinmarketsoutsideofChinacouldtightensupplies,Vale,thelargestproducer,said.

ArcelorMittalsaidinOctoberthereboundinsteeldemandwouldpushcapacityusageinthefourthquartertoabout70percent,from61percentintheprePoscosaidlastweekitwouldraiseoutputby17percentthisyear.